Modeling Consortium Meetings

The full consortium is invited to meet and discuss high-priority public health topics relevant to modeling and advanced analytics on an as needed basis. Additionally, there is a biweekly smaller group convening. Email [email protected] if you're interested in presenting or leading a discussion panel.

October 25, 2023 - Flu forecasting and scenario modeling

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenters
    • Rebecca Borchering (CDC) - FluSight forecasting of laboratory confirmed influenza hospital admissions and corresponding trends
    • Sam Bents (NIH) - Scenario Modeling Hub: Projections for the 2023-24 influenza season
  • Moderator
    • Lauren White (CDPH) 

September 13, 2023 - Forecasting COVID-19 during surges 

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenter
    • Volodymyr Minin (UCI) - Forecasting during COVID-19 epidemic surges of pathogen variants capable of immune escape
  • Moderator
    • Tomás León (CDPH)

August 9, 2023 - Lessons from California’s COVID-19 Exposure Notification System (CA Notify) for Future Pandemic Responses

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenters
    • Eliah Aronoff-Spencer (UCSD)
    • Ravi Goyal (UCSD)
    • Bridget Kruszka (CDPH)
  • Moderator
    • Mohsen Malekinejad (CDPH)

June 7, 2023 - Key Findings: i. Merging electronic health record and CDPH data on COVID-19 vaccination rates to examine structural, neighborhood, and individual-level disparities in uptake, and ii. Black-Focused Assessment of Indicators for Risk Reduction (BFAIRR)

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenters
    • Kathryn Kemper (UCSF)
    • Ninez Ponce (UCLA)
    • Vickie Mays (UCLA)
  • Discussion
    • Josh Quint (CDPH)
    • Adam Readhead (CDPH)
    • Courtney Lyles (CDPH)

May 3, 2023 - Key Findings: i. Estimated impact of COVID-19 vaccines and school attendance, and ii. Forecasting hospitalization and nowcasting transmission of SARS-CoV-2

  • Agenda 
  • Recording
  • Presenters
    • Jennifer Head (UCB)
    • Eve Lin (UCB)
    • Volodymyr Minin (UCI)
  • Discussion
    • Moderator - Sohil Sud (CDPH)

February 1, 2023 - Retrospective look at model performance

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenters
    • Lauren White (CDPH)
    • Paul Mattern (UCSC)
    • Josh Schwab (UCB)
    • Chris Hoover (CDPH)
  • Discussion
    • Moderator - Marm Kilpatrick (UCSC)

December 8, 2022 - COVID-19 Winter Outlook 

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenters
    • Rachel Baker (Brown)
    • Chadi Saad-Roy (UCB)
  • Discussion: ​Interactions between seasonality in transmission (due to behavior & climate), and population immunity (both vaccine- and infection-derived), as well as any behavioral changes or NPIs, modeling and potential policy interventions, implications of COVID-19 NPIs for other infections
    • Moderator - Tomás León (CDPH)
    • Discussant - Erin Murray (CDPH)
    • Discussant - Marm Kilpatrick (UCSC)
    • Discussant - Maya Petersen (UCB)
    • Discussant - Rachel Baker (Brown)
    • Discussant - Chadi Saad-Roy (UCB)

October 5, 2022 - Influenza and Covid-19 

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenters
    • Shaun Truelove (JHU)
    • Ajitesh Srivastava (USC)
    • Lauren White (CDPH)
  • Moderator 
    • Seema Jain (CDPH)

September 7, 2022 - Modeling MPX (Monkeypox)

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenters
    • Ian Holloway (UCLA) and Sze-Chuan Suen (USC) - Adapting an HIV prevention microsimulation model to MPX 
    • Jamie Lloyd-Smith (UCLA) and Eva Rest (Yale) - The global landscape of susceptibility to orthopoxviruses
  • Moderator
    • Natalie Linton (CDPH)

July 6, 2022 - Black-Focused Assessment of Indicators for Risk Reduction of Covid-19 

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenters
    • Vickie Mays and Ninez Ponce (UCLA) - Black-Focused Assessment of Indicators for Risk Reduction of Covid-19
  • Moderator
    • Adam Readhead (CDPH)

June 15, 2022 - Estimating effective reproductive number dynamics from wastewater + K-12 vaccination policy options

  • Agenda 
  • Recording
  • Presenters
    • Isaac Goldstein (UCI) - Estimating effective reproductive number (Rt) dynamics from wastewater SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data
    • Jennifer Head (UCB) - K-12 vaccination policy options in light of heterogeneity in infection- and vaccine-induced immunity across California counties
  • Moderators
    • Tomás León (CDPH)
    • Marm Kilpatrick (UCSC)

June 1, 2022 - Covid-19 vaccine and booster disparities in California + Vashon, WA experience

  • Agenda 
  • Recording
  • Presenters
    • Debby Oh (UCSF) and Kathryn Kemper (UCSF) - Neighborhood-level disparities in COVID-19 vaccinations and boosters across California 
    • James Bristow (formerly UCSF) and Karla Lindquist (UCSF) - An Effective Community-Based COVID-19 Response Program: The Vashon, WA Medical Reserve Corps Experience 
  • Moderator
    • Chris Hoover (CDPH)

May 18, 2022 - Genomic Surveillance in Wastewater

  • Agenda 
  • Recording
  • Presenters
    • Rose Kantor (UC Berkeley) - Sequencing methodologies
    • Rob Knight (UC Davis) - Wastewater sequencing and the University and San Diego Experience
    • Ali Boehm (Stanford) - Targeted Assays
  • Discussion
    • Alex Yu - Moderator (CDPH)

April 20, 2022 - Covid-19 by occupation/industry

  • Agenda 
  • Recording
  • Presenters
    • Erika Meza (CDPH)
    • Kristin Cummings (CDPH)
    • Alicia Riley (UCSC)
  • Discussion
    • Ximena Vergara - Moderator (CDPH)

March 16, 2022 - Assessing the impacts of Covid-19

March 2, 2022 - Evidence for masking

February 2, 2022 - Vaccination status and prior diagnosis

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenter
    • Vajeera Dorabawila (NY State Dept of Health)
  • Discussion
    • Seema Jain (CDPH) - Moderator
    • Vajeera Dorabawila (NY State Dept of Health) - Discussant
    • Tomás León (CDPH) – Discussant
    • Eli Rosenberg (NY State Dept. of Health, Univ. at Albany School of Public Health) – Discussant

January 19, 2022 - Severity of Omicron

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenter
    • Joseph Lewnard (UC Berkeley)
  • Discussion 
    • Seema Jain - Moderator (CDPH)

January 5, 2022 - UT Texas Austin COVID-19 Modeling Consortium

  • Agenda
  • Recording 
  • Presenter
    • Spencer Fox (UT Austin)
  • Discussion
    • Natasha Martin - Moderator (UCSD)
    • Tomas Leon (CDPH)
    • Marm Kilpatrick (UCSC)

November 17, 2021 - CDC's New Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenter
    • Marc Lipsitch (CDC Director for Science for CFA) - Overview of CDC's New Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics
  • Discussion Moderators:
    • Tomas Leon (CDPH)
    • Maya Petersen (UCB)
    • Marm Kilpatrick (UCSC)
    Seema Jain (CDPH)

November 3, 2021 - Future Surge

  • Agenda
  • Recording (*Note: Due to a technical difficulty only half of the session was recorded)
  • Presenters
    • Debby Oh (UCSF): Visualizing California COVID disparities at the neighborhood level
    • Megha Mehrotra (CDPH): CalScope: SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in California, May – June 2021
  • Discussion: Geographical distribution of COVID immunity (from infection and vaccination), and implications for a future surge and vaccination strategy
    • Maya Petersen (UCB)
    • Marm Kilpatrick (UCSC)

October 20, 2021 - Agent-based models

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenters
    • Mohsen Malekinejad (CDPH, UCSF): Overview
    • Lucia Abascal (UCSF): Strategies to Improve Uptake of COVID-19 vaccination Among Spanish speakers in San Francisco: An Intervention Plan Guided by Implementation Science
    • Ravi Goyal (UCSD): Hidden connections: key for investigating the impact of digital notification systems
    • Chris Hoover (CDPH): Agent based modeling of staffing and testing schedules to reduce SARS-CoV2 transmission in congregate settings

September 15, 2021 - School-based transmission

  • Agenda
  • Recording (please submit a request)
  • Presenters: 
    • Jennifer Head - PhD Candidate, UC Berkeley Dept of Epidemiology
    • Alyssa Bilinski - Assistant Professor of Health Policy, Brown School of Public Health 
  • Moderators: 
    • Naomi Bardach (Safe Schools For All Team Lead, CHHS)
    • Ryan McCorvie (CDPH Modeling Team)

September 1, 2021 - Immunity

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenter: Marm Kilpatrick, PhD., M.S. (UC Santa Cruz): How should we model immunity for COVID-19?

August 4, 2021 - CDC and CDPH Science Agenda; CA state update

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenters:
    • Tomás J. Aragón, MD, DrPH (CDPH Director and State Public Health Officer): The CDC and CDPH Science Agenda / California State Epidemiologist Update and Current Key Questions

June 23, 2021 - Sub-county Spatio-temporal Modeling

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenters:
    • Jason Vargo (CDPH): Welcome, overview, discussion moderator
    • Vladimir Minin (UCI): Semi-parametric modeling of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Orange County, California using tests, cases, deaths, and seroprevalence data
    • Daniel Daugherty (CDPH): Modeling hot spots around SNFs

June 9, 2021 - Modeling Variants

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenters:
    • Seema Jain (CDPH): Welcome, overview, discussion moderator
    • Elana Silver (CDPH): Current Surveillance Data Limitations
    • Tomas Leon (CDPH): Accounting for Data Limitations from a Modeling Perspective
    • Russ Corbett-Detig & Marm Kilpatrick (UCSC): Integrating sequences from different sources into a single repository & applying tools for public health

May 19, 2021 - Modeling Approaches

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenters:
    • Tomas Leon (CDPH): Welcome & Overview
    • Nathan Lo (UCSF): Targeting COVID-19 vaccination in California: past and future work
    • Maya Petersen and Josh Schwab (UCB): Compartmental modeling using LEMMA to support evolving county-level vaccine targets and variant/vaccine/re-opening scenarios
    • Tomas Leon (CDPH): Discussion moderator

May 5, 2021 - Schools

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenters:
    • Priya Shete (CDPH): Welcome & Overview
    • Kristin Andrejko, Jennifer Head, Justin Remais (UCB): Schools modeling & examining longitudinal social contact patterns among households with children
    • Jim Kahn & Sigal Maya (UCSF): COVID screening in schools: Once vs. Twice weekly
    • Joshua Salomon (Stanford): Modeling safe school reopening strategies
    • Naomi Bardach (CHHS): Discussion moderator

April 21, 2021 - Prisons

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenters:
    • Stefano Bertozzi (UCB) & Heidi Bauer (CDCR): Welcome and Overview
    • Sharon Dolovich & Aaron Littman (UCLA): COVID & prisons presentations UCLA Law COVID-19 Behind Bars Data Project
    • Jeremy Goldhaber (Stanford): COVID-19 Analyses to Support Prison Health Policy
    • Lee Worden (UCSF): Transmission Dynamics within CA Prisons
    • Stefano Bertozzi (UCB) – Discussion Panel Moderator

April 7, 2021 - Wastewater Surveillance

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenters:
    • Alex Yu (CDPH): What's the landscape for COVID-19 wastewater surveillance?
  • Wastewater surveillance presentations
    • Smruthi Karthikeyan/Rob Knight (UCSD)
    • Rose Kantor/Kara Nelson (UCB)
    • Katrine Whiteson/Jason Rothman (UCI)
  • Discussion
    • Duc Vugia - Moderator, CDPH

March 24, 2021 - Post-pandemic Forecasting

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenters:
    • What's the landscape for COVID-19 forecasting now?
      • CDPH Modeling Team: Overview and evolution of CalCAT
    • Forecasting in the Post-Pandemic Period
      • Youyang Gu: CA-based Data Scientist, Creator COVID19-projections.com
      • DJ Patil: Former U.S. Chief Data Scientist; Senior Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
    • Discussion Panel
      • Priya Shete - Moderator, CDPH
      • Maya Petersen (UCB) – Discussant
      • Natasha Martin (UCSD) – Discussant
      • Vladimir Minin (UCI) – Discussant
      • Travis Porco (UCSF) – Discussant

March 10, 2021 - Seroprevalence Surveys

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenters:
    • Megha Mehrotra (CDPH): Estimated SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in CA using CalREDIE Surveillance Data
    • Saki Takahashi & Bryan Greenhouse (UCSF): SARS-CoV-2 Serosurveillance: Local Efforts & Global Considerations
    • Cameron Adams (UCB): Serosurveillance in the East Bay

March 3, 2021 - Surveillance and Modeling Variants

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenters:
    • Seema Jain (CDPH): Introduction
    • Joe DeRisi (UCSF): Results on CA variants
    • Natasha Martin (UCSD): Modeling variants
    • Tomas Leon & John Pugliese (CDPH): Data & Tools Spotlight CalCAT Variant Scenario Modeling

February 24, 2021 - Vaccine Distribution and Modeling Equity

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenters:
    • Travis Porco (UCSF) & Rae Wannier (UCSF): Ring vaccination against COVID (PDF slides)
    • Seth Blumberg (UCSF): Models of the impact of vaccine distribution
    • Vickie Mays (UCLA) & Ninez Ponce (UCLA): HPI and Race/Ethnicity

February 17, 2021 - Vaccines and Surveillance

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenters:
    • Priya Shete (CDPH)
    • Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert (Stanford)
    • Tomas Aragon (CDPH)

February 10, 2021 - Economics

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenters:
    • Will Dow (UCB): Macro-economic issues (PDF slides)
    • Evan White (California Policy Lab): Monitoring unemployment, small businesses, residential mobility, and stimulus payments (PDF slides)
    • Jim Kahn (UCSF): Cost-effectiveness of COVID screening strategies for workplaces (PDF slides)
    • Stef Bertozzi (UCB): How economics can be added to prison COVID control modeling
    • Josh Goldstein (Urban Footprint): Census Pulse data to examine economic hardship and stress (PDF slides)

February 3, 2021 - Vaccines

  • Agenda
  • Recording
  • Presenters:
    • LLoyd Chapman for Nathan Lo (UCSF) (PDF slides)
    • Maya Petersen (UCB)
    • Chris Hoover (UCB) with Travis Porco (UCSF)
    • Yian Ma (UCSD)
    • Sara Del Valle (Los Alamos National Lab)
    • Tomas L. Aragon (CDPH)

January 27, 2021 - Kickoff

CDPH introduction (PDF slides)