Creating Thresholds for Spatial Transport, Urban Design and Social Vulnerability Metrics to Lower Infectious Disease Mortality: Implications of systematic and random heterogeneity

Evidence on the built and social environment impacts on COVID-19 outcomes (including hospitalizations and deaths) is growing. Developing effective environmental policies to mitigate COVID-19 harm requires measurable policy targets. Positioned within the built environment-social vulnerability framework, this project aims to develop generalizable thresholds for objectively assessed built and social environment features to mitigate infectious disease mortality in California. We will create a unique statewide data infrastructure by spatially joining COVID-19 outcome data with neighborhood level data on built/social environments, transport accessibility, and travel behavior. We will develop a novel methodology to simultaneously account for systematic and random heterogeneity impacts by integrating advanced simulation-assisted heterogeneous models and deep learning analytics. Income-based differences in environmental thresholds will be assessed. The evidence-based thresholds will help California policymakers set policy targets that can be used to guide more equitable and resilient infrastructure design to mitigate COVID-19 harm and prepare for future infectious disease outbreaks.