Epidemiologic and model-based assessments of K-12 public health policies for mitigation of SARS-CoV-2 variant transmission in schools

In-person schooling confers tremendous benefits for children, and thus limiting the contribution of schools to SARS-CoV-2 transmission is of critical importance. We propose a California COVID-19 school transmission modeling initiative that responds to ongoing needs of policy-makers, and incorporates waning immunity, vaccine dose scheduling (including boosters), NPIs, and emergence of variants. We will forecast school-based transmission dynamics associated with key policies related to school children, including immunization schedules, vaccine mandates, and implementation of within-school NPIs. Second, we will conduct a retrospective cohort study—using a quasi-experimental, regression discontinuity design—to empirically evaluate the effectiveness of school-based policies during the fall 2021 semester. Both modeling and cohort study results will be made available prior to the fall 2022 semester, with the goal of informing geographic and population-specific decisions on school-based policies in the presence of uncertainties regarding waning immunity and emergence of novel variants.